|
Red Flag: 25 June Great Lakes |
 |
 |
 |
|
Written by David Marshall
|
|
Thursday, 25 June 2009 07:27 |
|
A slight risk of severe storms is forecast throughout most of the Great Lakes today. Dynamics across much of the area appear relatively limited, with virtually no directional shear present except in a small area of southern Ontario. Even there, wind profiles are confused and sluggish, pointing towards a limited tornadic threat. Soundings show that high wind will be the major threat across the Ohio Valley and Northeast, with a marginal hail threat further to the west across northern Indiana/Illinois. If forcing is more dramatic than expected, or instability is higher than expected across the Ohio Valley, steep lapse rates throughout the air column could also support large hail with stronger cells.
Actual evolution of the event seems somewhat confused in the models, the RUC and NAM seem to be faster, with initiation some time before 5pm EDT along the OH/PA shoreline of Lake Erie. It evolves into an MCS across Ohio and a squall line further north and east into southern NY. the GFS is slower, bringing the convection across the border after 8pm EDT with the most intense area of convection firing along the PA/NY border near the lake.
In any event the threat around Lake Erie looks marginal given moderate instability and lack of any appreciable directional shear. Stronger updrafts should have the potential for high winds and frequent lightning, but little else. Further west from Chicago to Ft Wayne, IN high wind and large hail will be more likely, but directional shear remains limited. |
|
|
Area Of Interest |
|
|
|
A little clarification. There are any number of websites that continuously discuss the short, medium, and long range forecast across the expanse of Tornado Alley. In contrast, a majority of StormNet members and affiliated TV stations are located east of the Mississippi River. As such, aside from exceptional circumstances where a major outbreak seems likely, forecast discussions on this page will primarily focus on the eastern half of the US and southern Canada, with the occasional discussion for the oft-neglected Desert Southwest. |
|
Got Ideas? |
|
|
|
Got ideas for features you'd like to see on the website? Have suggestions on how we can do things better? We'd love to hear them. Contact Us!
For those of you who have sent messages via the contact form in the last month, we finally ironed out some problems with it, and will be responding shortly. Sorry for the delay! |
|
|
Calling All Members! |
|
|
|
If you are or have been in the (relatively) recent past been a member of StormNet, you should have received an email from Dave Marshall regarding the impending roster udpate. If you are a current member, or have been in the past and are unsure of your membership status and DID NOT receive the email, please use the contact form on the menu above to get in touch, and we'll add you back into the roster. If we are unable to contact a member by email/phone/snail mail by August 1st, 2009, their name will be removed from the roster, and their chase number may be reassigned. |
|
|
